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Derive.xyz Market Update: ETH Crashes 14% as Volatility Spikes – BTC Probabilities Shift Bearish
“Amid mounting geopolitical pressure, we’re seeing classic risk-off behavior with falling prices, spiking volatility and a pullback in upside positioning.
“BTC has pulled back over 4% today, from $104,300 to $100,300. We’re also seeing a spike in short-term implied volatility (IV) – up 10% to 45% – as traders begin pricing in fresh risk.
BTC ATM volatility (7 day tenor)
“ETH’s drawdown has been even sharper, down nearly 14% from $2,550 to $2,200. That’s been accompanied by a 15-point jump in 7-day IV to 83%, reflecting increased downside hedging and uncertainty.
“Ethereum’s double-digit loss and volatility spike to 83% show just how fast risk can unravel when leverage is high.
ETH ATM volatility (7 day tenor)
The surge in short-dated IV – BTC to 45%, ETH to 83% – confirms the market is bracing for more instability. Volatility markets are telling us this isn’t over.
BTC price predictions:
“The BTC options market is scaling back on optimism. The probability of BTC ending the year above $200K has dropped to 3.5%, down from 4% last week. Bulls are losing conviction as geopolitical risk and macro headwinds overshadow halving optimism and ETF flows.
“The chance of BTC reaching above $150K by December 31 has also declined, now sitting at 11% compared to 13% previously.
“Meanwhile, the likelihood of BTC closing below $80K remains unchanged at 20%.
“Dropping upside probabilities for BTC and a steady 20% downside chance below $80K show the options market leaning defensive. Traders aren’t betting big on upside right now.
“Without a clear de-escalation trigger, we expect more cautious positioning and subdued momentum in the month ahead.”
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Lumin Digital Unveils Lumin Solaire, an AI-Native Intelligence Layer Embedded In Its Compounding Growth Platform
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Sturgis Bank Partners with MANTL to Transform Business and Retail Account Opening Across All Banking Channel
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Reap and TerraPay Partner to Expand Local Payout Corridors Globally
Reap, the stablecoin-native global payments and financial platform infrastructure for businesses, today announced a strategic partnership with TerraPay, a global money movement company, to expand local cross-border payouts through direct access to domestic clearing systems worldwide.
Digital Assets Clearing Center Secures US$10 Million Funding for International Market Infrastructure
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Wyden Expands Digital Asset Liquidity Network by Integrating EDX Markets
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Nuvo and Avalara Launch AI Integration to Eliminate Tax Compliance Gaps and Accelerate B2B Customer Onboarding
Nuvo Technologies, the AI-native customer-to-cash platform, today announced an integration with Avalara, the agentic AI leader in global tax and compliance. The integration connects Nuvo’s AI-powered onboarding with Avalara’s exemption certificate management and real-time tax calculation capabilities—enabling B2B suppliers to handle credit applications and tax compliance in a single, unified experience. The result is a single workflow where suppliers can approve customers and ensure tax compliance at the same time.
Lumin Digital Unveils Lumin Solaire, an AI-Native Intelligence Layer Embedded In Its Compounding Growth Platform
Lumin Digital, the Compounding Growth Platform for banks and credit unions, today unveiled Lumin Solaire, an AI-native intelligence layer embedded across its platform. The announcement was made at Lumination, the company’s annual client conference, where Lumin is showcasing its platform strategy and product roadmap.
Sturgis Bank Partners with MANTL to Transform Business and Retail Account Opening Across All Banking Channel
Alkami Technology, Inc. (Nasdaq: ALKT) ("Alkami"), a digital sales and service platform provider for financial institutions in the U.S., today announced a new partnership between MANTL, an Alkami solution team and leading provider of loan and deposit account opening technology, and Sturgis Bank, a community bank serving Michigan through 16 branches, to transform its account opening experience for business and retail customers. Through this partnership, Sturgis Bank will modernize onboarding across all physical and digital banking channels, reinforcing its commitment to delivering a seamless, efficient, and customer-centric experience while expanding accessibility and accelerating digital growth.
Redbridge: Visa’s Commercial Enhanced Data Program (CEDP) – What Merchants Are Really Facing
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TSAM London: FE fundinfo on Mastering Data and Unifying Operations in Asset Management
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Reap and TerraPay Partner to Expand Local Payout Corridors Globally
Reap, the stablecoin-native global payments and financial platform infrastructure for businesses, today announced a strategic partnership with TerraPay, a global money movement company, to expand local cross-border payouts through direct access to domestic clearing systems worldwide.
Digital Assets Clearing Center Secures US$10 Million Funding for International Market Infrastructure
Digital Asset Clearing Center (DACC.HK), a next-generation financial market infrastructure for the tokenized economy, today announced US$10 million in funding from strategic partners including Conflux, Transaction Technologies Limited (“TTL”) and Global InfoTech. Traditional bank transfers continue to dominate the US$214 trillion cross-border payments market, but tokenized finance offers an alternative to slow settlement cycles, high transaction costs, fragmented data systems and regulatory barriers. Digital Asset Clearing Service offers seamless connections to the world's leading payment systems including Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), blockchain networks and compliance infrastructure delivering end-to-end Clearing-as-a-Service (CaaS) for financial institutions.