Almost Two in Three Brokers Believe the Budget Will Negatively Impact the Housing Market

Mortgage advisers see a difficult few months ahead for the housing market, research suggests.

Mortgage network, PRIMIS, surveyed 223 appointed representatives across England in mid-October and found that 60% believe the Budget will negatively impact the housing market. 

However, they did also see differing fortunes for key markets in the upcoming Budget.

54% thought that the government may yet help first-time buyers but were united (96%) in their assessment that the Budget would negatively impact the Buy-to-Let market.

Two thirds expect the touted Inheritance Tax changes to improve demand for Equity Release products as home-owners seek to mitigate changes to the tax thresholds. 

Brokers from the South, North and Midlands took part in the survey. Brokers in the North were the least pessimistic about the impact of the Budget on the housing market with 52% expecting a negative impact on the market compared to 64% in the other two regions. But elsewhere, the results were consistent across the three regions.

Emma Hollingworth, Chief Distribution Officer at LSL, said the data reflected brokers’ expectations about the impact of tax rises across the entire market. “Our advisers report a very consistent picture,” she said. “The withdrawal of stamp duty next March, and the likely changes to Capital Gains Tax, mean our brokers responses reflect nervousness among home-buyers and investors.

“Only Equity Release appears to have surfaced as a market which may benefit from the Budget, as many more estates are caught up in the likely Inheritance Tax reforms and seek to mitigate their liabilities.

Hollingworth said the survey underlined not only the broker mood around direct tax impacts but also those that will indirectly impact affordability.

“Noone can really know the impact of hikes on Employer National Insurance contributions or any changes to employer pension contributions, but a softer labour market will undoubtedly affect lenders’ risk appetites.

“Whatever the outcome of this Budget, we believe brokers will be busy as customers reassess their financial positions. That’s where being part of a network, which can support its brokers while they get on with the business of advising, is so important.”