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January 17 2017

Theresa May steers towards Hard Brexit

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“Theresa May’s keynote Brexit speech confirmed that the UK Government will seek a ‘hard Brexit’, which includes leaving the single market, taking control of immigration and looking to secure a unique trade deal with the EU. Despite the initial spike of sterling against the dollar, we expect the pound to remain weak until a final agreement with the EU is reached. Importers of goods from the continent and overseas will look to pass price increases on to customers, a trend that can already be seen in December’s 1.6% inflation rate. While there have been mixed signals regarding Brexit’s long-term effect on growth, it is clear that the British economy is now likely to enter much choppier waters.

“Today’s announcement is in line with Dun & Bradstreet’s Brexit expectations, and we see no reason to adjust our current macroeconomic forecasts. We are also maintaining our DB2d risk rating and its ‘deteriorating’ outlook. Despite Theresa May’s assertion that she believes Britain will have fully left the EU in March 2019, we predict that the more complex and comprehensive negotiations surrounding Britain’s involvement with the EU – following on from a transitional agreement going into effect in 2019 – will probably conclude in the early or mid-2020s.”

Markus Kuger, Senior Economist, Dun & Bradstreet

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