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December 20 2018

State Street Comments on Federal Open Market Committee Meeting

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In reaction to today’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Lee Ferridge, head of Multi-Asset Strategy, Americas at State Street Global Markets; and Antoine Lesné, head of EMEA strategy and research for SPDR ETFs, offer their views.

Lesné commented, “As widely expected, the Fed delivered one further hike for 2018 bringing short rates closer to the neutral rate. Despite political pressure, waning economic momentum globally, and little inflation pressure, the conditions were sufficient to keep autopilot for this hike. This backdrop however makes the next steps potentially more complicated for the Fed as the market recently started to price only one further increase in 2019. It is likely that the Fed will remain cautious and guidance will be even more data dependent. Given the current backdrop yields may remain around the recent levels and the dollar a bit softer.”

Ferridge commented, “As widely expected the FOMC raised rates by 25bp on Wednesday, its fourth hike in 2018. However, this was accompanied by a reduction in the Fed’s expectations for policy moves in 2019, with the median “dot” now predicting two moves next year, down from three previously. More mixed data (particularly concerning the housing market), a reduction in inflation fears due to the sharp decline in oil prices, concerns over the global economy and markedly highly asset market volatility are all likely to have played into the Fed’s thinking for 2019. However, there was no announced change in its plans for balance sheet reduction (QT) and this is likely to mean more market volatility to come despite the more benign rates message coming from the central bank.”

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