Checkout.com Data Release: January Sales See Late-Month Surge as Shoppers Hunt for Value

WHY THIS MATTERS: The volatility in UK consumer spending, characterized by a dramatic 102% swing in transaction volumes between the mid-month low and the final payday peak, signals a structural shift in retail engagement, not just a post-holiday lull. This intense clustering of activity around specific discount windows and salary drops creates immense operational stress on merchant systems and their payments partners. The key industry significance lies in the accelerating connection between deliberate consumer behavior and the rise of agentic commerce. As shoppers strategically wait for optimal prices, they are increasingly relying on automated tools to secure those deals. Payment providers must now adapt their payments infrastructure to handle not only massive, sharp volume spikes but also the complexity of transactions initiated by non-human agents. This shift demands superior reliability and security at scale, transforming operational resilience into the primary competitive differentiator for payments facilitators serving the retail sector today.

New transaction data from Checkout.com shows that January 2026 unfolded as a month of two distinct halves for UK retail, with spending initially subdued before rising sharply at the end of the month as consumers waited for paydays and deeper discounts.

After a typically quiet New Year’s Day, spending picked up quickly. On January 2, transaction volumes were 28% higher than the daily average for the month, pointing to early engagement with seasonal sales. Transaction volumes dipped through the second and third weeks of January, reaching their lowest point on January 17, when spending dropped to 11% below the daily average.

Activity then accelerated significantly in the final week of the month. The peak came on Friday, January 30, when transaction volumes were 89% above the daily average and 102% higher than the mid-month low. This late-month surge exceeded even December’s most prominent trading days, including the final Friday before Christmas, which was 38% above its period average, underscoring how strongly spending is now clustered around paydays and clearance events.

Comparisons with the holiday period further illustrate this shift in timing. While January 2 recorded a healthy uplift, it remained more muted than the immediate post-Christmas rebound, when spending on Boxing Day rose 43% compared to Christmas Day. This points to a change in urgency, with January shoppers showing greater willingness to wait until later in the month before spending.

Rory O’Neill, CMO at Checkout.com, said: “January’s spending patterns show just how deliberate consumers have become about when they choose to spend, with activity increasingly concentrated around paydays and the deepest discount periods rather than spread evenly across the month.

“That timing pressure is accelerating the shift towards more automated ways to shop. Our research shows nearly one in five people (19%) already use AI to help them find discount codes and deals, and almost half (48%) would feel comfortable letting an AI agent make a purchase on their behalf, underlining how quickly shoppers are moving from using AI for support to trusting it to transact.

“As agentic commerce develops, the role of payments is to make sure every transaction, whether triggered directly by a shopper or by an agent acting on their behalf, is fast, reliable and secure.”

This peak season, Checkout.com’s Play by Play dashboard gives a live read on how its payment network is performing across the world, from Black Friday right the way through to Christmas, the January sales and Valentine’s day.

FF NEWS TAKE: This data strongly moves the needle by validating the immediate importance of investment in resilient, high-capacity payments infrastructure. The future of retail payments will be determined by which providers can successfully facilitate reliable “machine-to-machine” transactions. We must closely watch how payment service providers (PSPs) allocate capital—focusing less on marketing new consumer features and more on hardening their API stability and transaction throughput to support the growing density and automation of high-stakes retail volume spikes