12.6 Million US Properties at High Risk From Hail Damage, Exposing Insurers to $189.5 Billion in Potential Losses

ZestyAI, the leader in AI-driven risk analytics for insurance, today revealed that more than 12.6 million U.S. properties are at high risk of hail-related roof damage, representing $189.5 billion in potential replacement costs.

Powered by ZestyAI’s Z-HAIL™ model, the analysis underscores the growing financial threat of severe convective storms (SCS), including hail, tornadoes, and wind events. In 2024 alone, damages from SCS were estimated at $56 billion—surpassing losses from hurricanes.

Yet many insurers still rely on traditional models designed to estimate portfolio-level exposure, not property-level risk. As hail events increase in severity and frequency, these models often miss the structural and environmental conditions that drive real losses.

“Catastrophe models have helped insurers understand where storms may strike and how losses might add up at a portfolio level,” said Kumar Dhuvur, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at ZestyAI. “But they weren’t built to assess risk at the individual property level, and they often miss the specific conditions that drive hail damage. By analyzing the interaction between structure-specific features and local storm patterns, we can distinguish risk between neighboring properties—enabling smarter underwriting, more precise pricing, and better protection for policyholders.”

Z-HAIL evaluates hail risk using a proprietary blend of climate, aerial, and property-specific data. By applying advanced machine learning to these inputs, Z-HAIL delivers highly granular predictions that reflect both the physical characteristics of a structure and the storm activity in its immediate surroundings.

Key findings from the analysis:

• 12.6 million U.S. structures flagged as high risk for hail-related roof damage
• $189.5 billion in total potential roof replacement exposure

Top five states by dollar exposure:

• Texas ($68B)
• Colorado ($16.7B)
• Illinois ($10.8B)
• North Carolina ($10.4B)
• Missouri ($9.5B)

States with the lowest dollar exposure:

• Maine ($4.7M)
• Idaho ($12.8M)
• New Hampshire ($18.5M)
• Nevada ($49.3M)
• Vermont ($64.7M)

In recent case studies, Z-HAIL has demonstrated the ability to pinpoint which properties are most susceptible to hail damage—even within the same neighborhood and exposed to the same storm. In one example from Allen, Texas, following a storm with 2.5-inch hailstones, Z-HAIL segmented risk across 483 policies, identifying no losses among properties rated “Very Low” by the model. This level of intra-territory precision gives insurers the ability to refine risk selection with confidence—even in the most hail-prone regions of the country.

Z-HAIL is currently approved in 14 states, including all of the top five most exposed to hail-related losses. Additional approvals are pending.