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BitMEX CEO Stephan Lutz unveils new research, “The Anchor and the Ceiling,” revealing that structural forces keep crypto funding rates positive 92% of the time and showcasing BitMEX’s leadership in stable, predictable perpetual swap markets.

October 14 2025

BitMEX Study Finds Cryptocurrency Funding Rates Positive 92% of the Time, Revealing a Structural Market Bias

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BitMEX, one of the safest crypto exchanges, announced today the findings of its study, “The Anchor and the Ceiling: Understanding the Structure of Funding Rates,” which reveals that two structural forces are driving  cryptocurrency funding rates to remain positive 92% of the time and that rates above the 0.01% baseline are often short-lived. The report outlines how crypto traders can leverage this predictable dynamic to adopt sophisticated, structure-based trading.

Since BitMEX invented the perpetual swap nine years ago, the market has evolved significantly. Now, dedicated funding rate trading markets are emerging, allowing traders to speculate on the market‘s underlying mechanics. Funding rates, the periodic payments that keep futures prices aligned with spot prices, have become a key indicator of market structure, offering insights that go  beyond simple price sentiment.

The study, which analysed data from Q3 2025 across BitMEX, Binance, and Hyperliquid, uncovered several key insights:

  • The Structural ‘Anchor’ Keeps Funding Rates at 0.01%: The perpetual swap funding formula has a built-in interest component that acts as a gravitational pull towards a baseline rate of 0.01%. Data shows funding rates were positive for over 92% of Q3 2025, even when contracts traded at a slight discount.

  • The Arbitrage ‘Ceiling’ Caps Extreme Spikes: Large inflows of institutional capital create a hard ceiling for funding rates. This capital is rapidly deployed to short high-premium contracts, compressing rates back to the baseline. This ensures that extreme positive funding rates are short-lived and unstable.

  • BitMEX Leads in Funding Rate Stability: The analysis confirmed BitMEX exhibited the most stable and predictable funding rates for both BTC and ETH. The rate was exactly 0.01% for 78.19% of the quarter for BTC and 87.52% for ETH, demonstrating a highly efficient market where perpetuals consistently track spot prices. In contrast, venues like Hyperliquid showed significantly higher volatility.

“As the inventors of the perpetual swap, we are witnessing its next major evolution – the rise of funding rate trading,” said Stephan Lutz, CEO of BitMEX. “Our latest research moves beyond market sentiment to reveal the core mechanics driving this market. The ‘anchor’ and ‘ceiling’ are not theories; they are structural forces that create high-probability trading opportunities. This study underscores a new level of market maturity, where understanding the architecture is the key to success.”

More details about the study can be found here: https://blog.bitmex.com/2025q3-derivatives-report/

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Stephan Lutz

BitMEX

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BitMEX
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