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July 26 2019

State Street Comments on European Central Bank Committee Meeting

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In reaction to today’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets and Antoine Lesné, head of EMEA strategy and research for SPDR ETFs, offer their views.

Metcalfe commented, “Accommodation is coming, but the challenge is that it is already winter economically in the Eurozone. Forward guidance that the ECB will support the economy later this year is welcomed news, but it was largely discounted by financial markets. With other central banks also easing it is going to be challenging for the ECB to ease on a relative basis and cheapen the Euro.

“This is just part of a broader question as to how the ECB can allay fears that it has little ammunition to ease policy after September. A dip into the Bank of Japan’s playbook of buying other assets such as equity indices is unlikely to be ruled out.”

Lesné commented, “Industrial data continues to disappoint across Europe and composite purchasing managers’ index’s (PMIs) continue to weaken. This could have been the perfect excuse for the ECB to act on its words but it’s only a matter of time. Letting the Fed act first could help the ECB gauge the extent of the cut to come and further prepare its messaging. Its not today but a cut is coming and this should still support Euro debt overall in the current environment. Now the challenge for investors is where to find positive yield. This also makes the case for enlarging the ECB arsenal of tools to equities following in the path of the Bank of Japan. Is this a positive catalyst for Eurozone equities? It may be too soon to say, but one to keep in mind.”

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