Incode Report: Agentic Fraud Could Exceed 90% of Attacks by 2028

Quick Summary

Agentic fraud is rapidly becoming the dominant cyber threat, with autonomous AI agents projected to conduct 90% of all fraud attempts within 18 months. Incode Technologies reports that AI-driven automation has decoupled fraud volume from human headcount, leading to a 1,900% surge in scam-service vendor payments.

How Does Agentic Fraud Differ From Traditional Cybercrime?

Agentic fraud represents a fundamental shift from human-led scams to autonomous AI operations. Unlike traditional phishing, where a human must manually interact with victims, AI agents can research targets, adapt to replies, and manage thousands of conversations simultaneously. This unlimited scalability means criminal output is no longer restricted by the number of people a scam compound can employ.

• Autonomous agents handle scams from start to finish without human intervention.
• API-driven costs allow criminals to launch massive campaigns for a fraction of traditional costs.
• AI-generated phishing converts 4.5x more effectively than human-written attempts.

What Are the Key Metrics Driving the AI Fraud Surge?

The data indicates that agentic fraud is not just a future risk but a current reality. In 2024, these attacks accounted for only 3% of attempts; by early 2026, that figure reached 40%. The financial impact is staggering, with the FBI logging $20.9 billion in US cyber-enabled losses in 2025 alone. Voice cloning technology is now present in over 50% of documented cases, highlighting the sophistication of these automated tools.

• 1,900% increase in payments to AI scam-service vendors since 2021.
• 25x projected growth in US fraud losses as automation deepens.
• 90% of professionals report facing an increase in AI-driven attacks.

Why is Identity Verification Critical to Stopping AI Agents?

As agentic fraud accelerates, traditional security measures are becoming obsolete. Because these agents can mimic human behavior and voice patterns perfectly, businesses must adopt identity verification solutions that can distinguish between biological humans and synthetic AI entities. The report suggests that 90% of current fraud incidents belong to categories that an autonomous agent can fully automate, necessitating a shift toward AI-native defense mechanisms.

FF NEWS TAKE:

The rise of agentic fraud is a watershed moment for the fintech industry. By removing the "human bottleneck," criminals have turned fraud into a high-margin, scalable software business. Incode’s data proves that we are no longer fighting hackers; we are fighting autonomous algorithms. This moves the needle significantly, forcing every financial institution to treat identity verification as a real-time AI arms race rather than a static compliance checkbox.