EXCLUSIVE: “2023 – The Year Ahead” in ‘The Fintech Magazine’

A reality check, strengthening resolve, and a tipping point for technology. Friends of fintech share their thoughts

CRYPTO & BLOCKCHAIN

Ram Gopal, Director of the Gillmore Centre for Financial Technology, Professor of Information Systems & Management, Warwick Business School

KEY TAKEAWAY: Bitcoin will be seen as mainstream by investors and regulators This year promises to be a significant one for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin. As the market matures, the price of Bitcoin is expected to stabilise, offering a valuable store of value, particularly in the face of inflation. Bitcoin’s decreased volatility will likely attract more institutional investors, as well as those seeking a secure means of transaction and protection against hyper-inflation in unstable economies.

The increased interest and adoption will also necessitate the development of coherent legislation and regulations surrounding Bitcoin’s use, including tax policies and rules for purchasing goods.

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Leda Glyptis, 10x Banking, author and finfluencer

KEY TAKEAWAY: Stormy start gives way to new focus

Historically, I have not been good at crystal ball gazing. All my predictions are off… usually by a few years (ever the optimist). But, sadly, this year is different.

In the midst of a cost-of-living crisis of Dickensian proportions in the UK, as well as an energy crisis, and with a looming recession so far avoided on a technicality, it is easy to be accurate when looking ahead to the next few months. I fear the rest of H1 will be marred by the pattern we’ve seen of redundancies, caution and no more easy money for early-stage startups and ‘corporate optionality’ projects. Grim. And hard for all affected, so be kind to one another.

There are better times ahead, though. H2 will come with an uplift – not a return to fat early rounds and aggressive growth, but a fresh sense of urgency across the industry to focus on building meaningful products that solve real problems and getting them to customers.

TECHNO TRENDS

Brett King, author and futurist

KEY TAKEAWAY: A year for big tech advances and philosophical debates

GPT 4 will start to see debate about the Turing Test, and whether AI is getting convincing enough to mimic a human.
Commercial gene therapy will be broadly in use for the first time.
We will start to see more major fintech brands talking about IPO.
SpaceX will get its Starship into orbit, leading to renewed debate about the future of humans on Mars.

CYBER RISK

Tom Eggleston, International Claims Leader, UK & Europe at cyber insurer Resilience

KEY TAKEAWAY: Fewer firms will pay ransoms; security spend increases While ransomware remains a significant threat and is by no means going away, fewer companies will pay ransoms. This is a result of increased emphasis on prevention, with companies investing in securing their borders and implementing strong cyber hygiene regimes.

From a regulatory perspective, insurers and financial service companies operating in the UK should pay close attention to statements coming from the Information Commissioner’s Office which has indicated a move of approach towards preventing and remedying harms, versus using purely punitive fines.

However, the new initiative includes publishing on its website all reprimands issued to companies since January 2022. It is likely these will be monitored by claimant law firms seeking to initiate group actions. So, there is increased threat of reputation harm and third-party  litigation risk.

VIEW FROM UKRAINE

Igor Tomych, Founder of Ukrainian software development company DashDevs and the Fintech Garden community in the UK

KEY TAKEAWAY: There will be more investment when there is more certainty By the end of this month (March) I think we will have a better idea of whether the war is going to be longer or shorter. But the strategic business approach has been to plan less and be more cautious because there’s no visibility.

Overall, the software engineering workforce is less than required last year because of that uncertainty. So, at DashDevs, we have remapped where we look at projects. Banks in Ukraine are cutting down the cost and development of future features. But the banking system is in good shape. Any company that was not sound as a business model [before the war] will fail; a new era will start when things are more predictable.

This article was published in The Fintech Magazine Issue 27, Page 74